Christopher Waller on Fed Interest Rates: December Hike
What Waller said on November 10, 2026
| Topic | What he said | What it signals |
|---|---|---|
| December decision | Leaning toward a rate increase even if October inflation is softer | His base case is at least a quarter-point hike |
| Size of the move | A 50 basis point hike should be considered if core inflation is 0.3% or higher | The trigger he named was met by the October core CPI print |
| Credibility | Hiking only 25 basis points would put the Fed's credibility at risk | He weighs inflation expectations above short-term market comfort |
| Pace | It is not necessary to raise rates at consecutive meetings | A bigger step now could be followed by a pause, not a hike every meeting |
| Economy | Activity is strong, the labor market is stable, inflation is well above the 2% goal | He sees no growth scare that would argue for waiting |
Christopher Waller and Federal Reserve Interest Rates: Why He Backs a December Hike
On November 10, 2026, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he leans toward a rate hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting and that a half-point move should be considered if inflation ran hot. October core CPI then rose 0.3% for a third straight month. Here is what he said, where rates stand, and what to watch before the decision.
Short answer: Waller wants a December hike, and is open to 50 basis points
Speaking in London on Tuesday, November 10, Waller said he is "leaning toward" supporting a rate increase at the December meeting even if October inflation came in softer than expected. The federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00% after a quarter-point hike in September and a hold at the October 27-28 meeting.
He set a clear trigger for a bigger move: if core inflation rose about 0.3% or more in October, "a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting." He added that hiking only 25 basis points "would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take."
The October CPI report came out the same day. Headline prices rose 0.4% and core prices rose 0.3%, both 0.1 point above the consensus forecast, and core has now printed 0.3% three months in a row. After the release, futures markets fully priced a quarter-point hike in December, with the odds of a half-point move at roughly 10% to 12%.
Federal Reserve interest rate path in 2026
| Date | Decision or event | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15-16, 2026 | Quarter-point rate hike | The FOMC raised rates to bring inflation back toward its 2% target |
| Oct 27-28, 2026 | Hold at 3.75% to 4.00% | Not unanimous: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented |
| Nov 10, 2026 | Waller speech and October CPI | Headline CPI +0.4%, core +0.3%; markets fully price a December hike |
| Dec 8-9, 2026 | Next FOMC meeting | Includes a new Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot |
| Jan 26-27, 2027 | First FOMC meeting of 2027 | The new year rotates which regional Fed presidents vote |
From rate-cut advocate to hawk: why Waller's shift matters
Christopher Waller has been a Fed governor since December 18, 2020, after President Trump nominated him and the Senate confirmed him 48-47. Before that he was research director at the St. Louis Fed. His current term as governor runs to January 31, 2030, and as a governor he votes at every FOMC meeting.
A year ago he was one of the loudest voices for lower rates. In July 2025 he dissented in favor of a cut, and he argued that tariff-driven price increases could be looked through. In October 2025 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent named him on a five-person short list to succeed Jerome Powell as chair.
That history is why his November 10 speech moved markets. When a policymaker known for leaning toward cuts says a quarter-point hike may be too small, traders read it as a sign that the committee's center has moved. Three straight 0.3% core CPI prints changed his view, and he said so directly.
Where other Fed officials stand
| Official | Recent view | 2026 FOMC vote |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Waller, Governor | Leans toward a December hike; a half-point move should be considered | Votes (all governors vote) |
| Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed | Expects two more quarter-point hikes before the Fed pauses | Votes in 2026; non-voting in 2027 |
| Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed | Warned against letting the economy overheat, which is very painful to reverse | Non-voting in 2026 |
| Lisa Cook, Governor | Dissented from the October hold | Votes (all governors vote) |
| Beth Hammack, Cleveland Fed | Dissented from the October hold | Votes in 2026 |
December FOMC scenarios: what each outcome would mean
| Outcome on Dec 9 | New target range | How markets would likely read it |
|---|---|---|
| Hold | 3.75% to 4.00% | A surprise against fully priced hike odds; yields and the dollar would likely fall |
| 25 basis point hike | 4.00% to 4.25% | The priced-in base case; focus shifts to the dot plot and the statement |
| 50 basis point hike | 4.25% to 4.50% | The Waller upside case; a hawkish shock for stocks, bonds and crypto |
| 25 bp hike, hawkish dots | 4.00% to 4.25% | Smaller step, but projections signal more hikes in 2027 |
What to watch before the December 8-9 decision
| Signal | Where to look | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| November CPI | BLS release before the December meeting | A fourth 0.3% core print strengthens Waller's case for 50 basis points |
| Fed speeches before the blackout | Remarks by the Fed chair, governors and 2026 voting presidents | Officials rarely surprise markets; the size debate shows up in speeches first |
| Futures pricing | Fed funds futures odds of a 25 vs 50 bp move | Shows how much of a half-point hike is already in prices |
| 2-year Treasury yield | Daily close of the 2-year note | The most rate-sensitive part of the curve moves first on hike expectations |
| Labor data | Payrolls, jobless claims and wage growth | Waller called the job market low-hire, low-fire; a break would soften his stance |
| Risk assets | Equities, the dollar and bitcoin into the meeting | Hot inflation already pushed bitcoin to about $72,744 on Nov 11 |
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Upgrade to Gemral Edge Pro ($39/mo)Frequently asked questions
What did Christopher Waller say about interest rates?
On November 10, 2026, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he leans toward a rate hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting and that a 50 basis point hike should be considered if October core inflation was 0.3% or higher. He said a 25 basis point hike alone would put the Fed's credibility at risk.
Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?
After the October CPI report, futures markets fully priced a quarter-point hike at the December 8-9 meeting, with roughly a 10% to 12% chance of a half-point move. The decision is not final until the FOMC statement on December 9.
What is the current federal funds rate?
The target range is 3.75% to 4.00%. The Fed raised it by a quarter point in September 2026 and held at the October 27-28 meeting.
Is Christopher Waller a hawk or a dove?
He was dovish in 2025, dissenting in favor of a rate cut in July 2025. In November 2026 he turned hawkish because core inflation stayed at 0.3% a month, well above the Fed's 2% goal.
Does Christopher Waller vote on interest rates?
Yes. As a member of the Board of Governors he votes at every FOMC meeting. His term as governor runs to January 31, 2030. This page is research, not investment advice.
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