Critical Minerals Defense Supply Chain Risk Scanner

Mineral Profiles Used by the Scanner

ElementChina shareUS import relianceSpot priceDefense use
Antimony (Sb)65.0%100%$17.5/lb ($38,500/ton)155mm artillery primers, armor-piercing munitions, FLIR infrared optics, military vehicle battery hardening.
Gallium (Ga)98.5%100%$1,950/kgGaN RF power amplifiers for F-35 AN/APG-81 AESA radar and Aegis destroyer SPY-6 air defense radar.
Germanium (Ge)72.0%50%$2,800/kgInfrared night vision optics for AH-64 Apache, M1A2 Abrams thermal sights, GPS III satellite solar arrays.
Heavy Rare Earths (Dysprosium & Terbium) (Dy/Tb)99.5%100%$1,450/kg (Dy) / $1,850/kg (Tb)Thermal stabilization additives in NdFeB permanent magnets for Tomahawk cruise missiles and nuclear submarine electric propulsion.
Free Tool · Defense Supply Chain

Critical Minerals Supply Chain Risk Scanner

Score how exposed US defense production is to Chinese export controls on antimony, gallium, germanium and heavy rare earths, by mineral, embargo severity, spot price and stockpile runway.

How the Vulnerability Score Works

The score (0-100) weights import reliance (35%), stockpile runway against a 24-month benchmark (35%) and embargo severity (30%). The scanner also estimates the price premium over the pre-ban antimony baseline and the resulting munitions supply deficit.

Worked example with the default inputs (antimony, 80% embargo severity, $17.5/lb, 5.2 months of stockpile): vulnerability score 83 (SEVERE / CRITICAL), price premium 182%, munitions deficit 88%.

Weapon Systems Exposure

Weapon systemVulnerability
155mm Artillery Shells (M795/M1128)CRITICAL
F-35 Fighter AN/APG-81 AESA RadarVERY HIGH
Virginia & Columbia Class SubmarinesHIGH
AH-64 Apache Modernized Target Acquisition (M-TADS)MODERATE

Background and the full export-control timeline: China Rare Earth Export Ban hub.

Educational scenario model built on USGS and Department of Defense public data. Not personalized investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

What does the critical minerals risk scanner measure?

It scores US defense supply chain vulnerability from 0 to 100 by weighting import reliance at 35%, stockpile runway against a 24-month benchmark at 35% and export embargo severity at 30%.

Which minerals does China restrict for export?

China has imposed export licensing on gallium and germanium (August 2023), banned export of rare earth separation technology (December 2023) and restricted antimony exports (September 2024).

Why does antimony matter for defense production?

Antimony is used in 155mm artillery primers, armor-piercing munitions and infrared optics. The US imports 100% of its antimony and the national stockpile covers roughly five months of demand in the tracked data.

Which weapon systems depend on gallium and rare earths?

Gallium nitride powers AESA radars such as the F-35 AN/APG-81, while dysprosium and terbium stabilize permanent magnets in missile actuators and submarine electric propulsion.

Risk Disclaimer

Trading and investing in digital assets, financial instruments, and predictive events involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for every investor. The predictive intelligence, probability distributions, historical precedents, and scenario modeling presented on this page are compiled for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Past performance and statistical precedents do not guarantee future outcomes. Always conduct independent due diligence before committing capital.