Michael Burry 13F Tracker Tool & Put Simulator
The payoff formula
The simulator uses a deliberately simple model so the result is easy to check by hand. It assumes the put strike equals the reference price behind the reported value and looks only at expiry:
- Premium paid = notional × premium %.
- Payoff at expiry = notional × fall in the stock %, and zero if the stock is flat or higher.
- Profit or loss = payoff − premium. The worst case is losing the whole premium.
- Return on premium = profit ÷ premium, which shows the leverage that makes puts attractive to contrarians.
| Worked example | Premium | Payoff | Profit / loss | Return on premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palantir puts, 1% premium, stock falls 20% | $9.1 million | $182.4 million | $173.3 million | 1900% |
| Palantir puts, 1% premium, stock flat | $9.1 million | $0 | $-9.1 million | -100% |
| Nvidia puts, 3% premium, stock falls 10% | $5.6 million | $18.7 million | $13.1 million | 233.3% |
What does this Scion 13F tool do?
It lets you open any reported quarter of Scion's portfolio, filter puts, calls and shares, see what was added or exited versus the prior quarter, and estimate how the final Palantir and Nvidia put lines pay off under your own premium and price assumptions.
Can it show today's positions?
No. The last official snapshot is the quarter ended September 30, 2025. Scion no longer files, so nobody can publish newer verified holdings. The tool is built for research on the complete, final record.
Why simulate put payoffs?
A 13F lists option notional value, not premium. Entering an assumed premium and price move shows how a bet reported at $912.1 million might have cost only millions and how its profit depends on the stock falling.
How the Michael Burry 13F tracker works
This michael burry 13f tracker tool is built from the information tables Scion filed on SEC EDGAR under CIK 0001649339. Each filing is stored once per quarter; same-quarter amendments that repeat an original filing are removed. For every quarter the tool groups lines by issuer and position type, adds up the reported values, and calculates each line's share of the total. Changing the quarter updates the headline figures, the holdings table and the quarter-over-quarter comparison together, and the selection is stored in the page address so a view can be shared.
The holdings filter works as a simple scion asset management portfolio screener: choose puts to see only bearish option lines, calls for bullish option lines, or shares for ordinary stock. The history table ranks every filing by its largest line, which makes the swings easy to spot. The most put-heavy filing in the dataset is the quarter ended 2023-06-30, when put options made up 93.6% of reported value.
Reading option lines correctly
Form 13F reports an option position at the market value of the shares it controls. For the final filing that means $912.1 million for puts on 5,000,000 Palantir shares and $186.6 million for puts on 1,000,000 Nvidia shares. These numbers describe exposure, not cash spent. The filing does not include strike prices, expiry dates or premiums, so any profit calculation needs assumptions. That is why the simulator asks for them instead of pretending to know them.
Used as a michael burry short positions tracker, the tool therefore answers "how large and how directional was the bet?" rather than "how much did he make?". Burry said publicly that the Palantir puts cost about $9.2 million, roughly one percent of the notional figure, which is why one percent is the default premium assumption.
Examples are computed by the same engine the tool uses. They are illustrations, not Scion's actual results.
Real options are more complicated: strikes are often below the current price, contracts can be sold before expiry, and time value changes daily. Treat the output as a way to understand asymmetry, not as a valuation.
Using it as a Big Short portfolio simulator
Searches such as the big short portfolio simulator usually follow a reading of Burry's 2008 trade. That trade used credit default swaps on mortgage bonds, which a 13F does not cover, so no public filing reconstructs it. What this tool can show is the modern version of the same instinct: concentrated, bearish option positions against popular stocks, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index puts in mid-2023 and the Palantir and Nvidia puts in 2025. Adjust the premium and the price move to see how rarely such bets pay and how large the payoff is when they do.
Limits you should know
- 13F data arrives up to 45 days after quarter end and shows only a quarter-end snapshot.
- Short sales of stock, cash, bonds and most non-US holdings are not reported.
- Scion's filings stop with the Q3 2025 report; commentary published afterwards is not a holdings disclosure.
- The simulator ignores taxes, fees, early exercise and volatility changes.
Where to go next
For the full story of the final filing, the 2023 index puts and the China stock period, read the Michael Burry 13F portfolio guide. To compare with a manager who still files every quarter, open the Berkshire Hathaway 13F tracker or browse the superinvestor directory. Developers and AI agents can call the same data through the WebMCP action track-michael-burry-scion-13f-portfolio.