Global Tariff & Currency Inflation Loss Calculator
How the Loss Is Calculated
The direct tariff cost applies the tariff rate and the retail pass-through rate to the imported share of household spending. Currency loss applies an annual debasement rate to total spending and compounds it over the horizon. The two add up to an effective inflation tax rate.
Worked example with the default inputs ($65,000 annual spending, 15% tariff, 78% pass-through, 3 years): direct tariff cost $2,890 a year, currency loss $2,925 a year, total $5,815 a year and $18,317 over the horizon, an effective inflation tax of 8.95%. Cumulative purchasing power lost to currency debasement over the horizon: 12.9%.
| Category (example) | Annual spend | Annual tariff loss | Price increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Electronics & Hardware | $9,858 | $900 | 9.1% |
| Apparel & Footwear | $7,393 | $623 | 8.4% |
| Automotive & Parts | $16,943 | $892 | 5.3% |
| Home Appliances & Furnishings | $11,706 | $794 | 6.8% |
| Packaged Food & Agricultural Imports | $19,100 | $492 | 2.6% |
Global Tariff & Currency Inflation Loss Calculator
Estimate how much purchasing power a household loses to import tariffs passed through to retail prices plus currency debasement, over a chosen number of years.
Tariff Scenarios
| Scenario | Tariff rate | Pass-through | Avg annual loss per family |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% Universal Baseline Tariff | 10% | 75% | $1,750 |
| 20% Universal Reciprocal Tariff | 20% | 80% | $3,200 |
| 60% Targeted China Tariff | 60% | 85% | $2,850 |
| Maximum Tariff Wall (20% World + 60% China) | 35% | 88% | $4,900 |
Spending Categories Most Exposed to Imports
| Category | Import share | Price elasticity | Baseline annual spend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Electronics & Hardware | 78% | 0.85 | $3,200 |
| Apparel & Footwear | 72% | 0.9 | $2,400 |
| Automotive & Parts | 45% | 0.7 | $5,500 |
| Home Appliances & Furnishings | 58% | 0.8 | $3,800 |
| Packaged Food & Agricultural Imports | 22% | 0.5 | $6,200 |
Macro background on sovereign debt and currency debasement: Ray Dalio Big Debt Crisis hub.